Source: National Weather Service Eastern Region Headquarters
Thirty years ago, a quick-moving nor’easter hammered the Jersey Shore, causing significant bayside flooding and severe beach erosion in some areas, according to a FEMA manual.
Will a similar or perhaps even worse event unfold on Tuesday?
Forecasters expect a powerful storm to form over the Atlantic Ocean, but “some important small-scale details may not be resolved until within 12 to 24 hours of the event,” according to a Weather Prediction Center discussion.
An “exceptionally deep storm (is) forecast to develop off the East Coast” Tuesday to Wednesday, the discussion says.
“The rapidly deepening storm off the East Coast and its supporting energy aloft may bring some snow to areas from the central Appalachians/mid-Atlantic into New England with a period of very strong winds as well. Small differences in (the storm) track may have (a) significant impact on the amount of snow/duration of strong winds observed at some locations,” the discussion says.
The March 29, 1984, storm packed near hurricane-force winds and sustained winds of 40 to 60 mph. Tides were estimated at 4 to 7 feet above normal at high tide, according to the manual. The storm blew significant amounts of sand down streets and on adjacent properties in areas where dunes lacked vegetation.
Local tidal flooding measurements indicate that the storm had a return period of about 10 to 20 years, according to the manual, citing the NJDEP. Bayside areas saw significant flooding. But because the storm moved quickly, private homes on the coast sustained remarkably little damage. Evacuations were called for in many areas, but low causeways and highways, especially in Atlantic County, made evacuations impossible.
As for the upcoming storm, “this is a system that we will continue to monitor as any slight shift in the track and intensity could have an impact across our forecast area,” according to a forecast discussion by the National Weather Service Mount Holly Office, which covers most of New Jersey.
Uncertainty remains regarding the storm’s track and intensity “as it slides by to our east Tuesday night,” according to a Mount Holly hazardous weather outlook. “As a result, there is uncertainty with the details. It does appear, however, that at least some wintry mix to snow occurs in our area Tuesday and Tuesday night. In addition, strong northerly winds will be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the potential for some coastal flooding.”
The forecast for Neptune calls for a chance of snow before 1 p.m. Tuesday, then rain and snow are likely. Rain and snow are also likely before 8 p.m. Tuesday night, then snow. Snow showers are likely on Wednesday.
Some more images on next week’s storm:
A very powerful storm on Weds. March 26 (Source: Weather Prediction Center)
Precipitation forecast for Tues. through Thurs. (Source: Weather Prediction Center)
Source: National Weather Service Upton N.Y. Office
Source: AccuWeather.com
